Friday, November 5, 2010

Grand Super Cycle

This chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index from the year 1900 to 2010 illustrates the Grand Super Cycle, where markets exhibit a long period of a flat to declining returns that is often followed by a period of healthy performance. Since 1900, there have been four such periods, with the current one being the worst. Taking a step back further into time, since 1835, there have been only six other roughly comparable episodes. After the prior down phases, stocks averaged 13% per year gains over the subsequent decade. History suggests that those who stay the course will be rewarded.